Aos Damage Calculator

Estimate expected damage output in Warhammer Age of Sigmar by combining attacks, hit and wound rolls, rend, saves, wards, and target wounds. This premium calculator is built for quick list tuning, combat planning, and side by side probability thinking.

Attacker Profile

Target Profile

Expert Guide to Using an AOS Damage Calculator

An AOS damage calculator helps players estimate how much damage a unit is likely to deal before they commit to a combat sequence. In Warhammer Age of Sigmar, outcomes depend on layered probabilities: attacks must hit, hits must wound, wounded attacks may be saved, and even unsaved damage can be reduced by a ward. Because every stage trims the result, a unit that looks explosive on paper can underperform badly against the wrong defensive profile. A strong calculator translates those layered mechanics into expected values you can actually use during list building and target priority decisions.

This page uses a practical expected damage model. It reads attack volume, hit roll, wound roll, rend, damage, target save, ward, and wounds per model. The result is not a guarantee of what will happen in a single dice spike. Instead, it gives you the average output over many repetitions of the same combat event. That makes it ideal for evaluating consistency, estimating whether a unit can clear a screen, and deciding whether a hammer unit is overkill into a lightly armored target.

What an AOS damage calculator actually measures

The simplest way to think about expected damage is to treat each attack as passing through a sequence of gates. First, it has to hit. Second, it has to wound. Third, the target may pass a save, adjusted by rend. Fourth, the target may pass a ward. Only after all of those steps do you get damage that sticks. Multiply the probability of success at each stage by the number of attacks and by the damage characteristic, and you arrive at the expected average output.

For example, consider 20 attacks hitting on 4+, wounding on 3+, with rend -1 and damage 2 into a 4+ save target with no ward. The average hit rate on a 4+ is 50%. The average wound rate on a 3+ is 66.7%. Rend -1 turns a 4+ save into a 5+, meaning the save succeeds 33.3% of the time and fails 66.7% of the time. So the expected unsaved wound count is approximately 20 × 0.5 × 0.667 × 0.667 = 4.44 unsaved wounds. At damage 2, that becomes about 8.89 expected damage before considering any special rules.

Key point: expected damage is best used for trend analysis, not certainty. A calculator tells you whether a profile is efficient on average, while the tabletop still allows high variance in any single combat phase.

Why average damage matters for list construction

Competitive and club level AOS players often evaluate units by role rather than by raw warscroll hype. A calculator lets you answer practical questions. Can this unit clear ten one wound infantry? Can it threaten a 3+ save elite brick? Does it punch through wards efficiently, or does it rely too heavily on medium rend and flat 2 damage? These are not abstract questions. They directly affect deployment, trading patterns, reinforcement choices, and command point allocation.

Average output also reveals efficiency thresholds. Two units with the same points cost may have similar top end potential, but one may be dramatically more reliable because it has better hit and wound values, native rend, or extra attack volume. The calculator makes those differences visible immediately. This is especially important when comparing profiles that appear similar in the army builder but scale differently into high armor and ward saves.

Probability reference table for common AOS rolls

The table below shows the exact probability of success for standard d6 target numbers used throughout Age of Sigmar. These are the baseline rates before modifiers, rerolls, and special abilities are applied.

Roll Needed	Successful Faces	Exact Probability	Percentage
2+	5 of 6	5/6	83.33%
3+	4 of 6	4/6	66.67%
4+	3 of 6	3/6	50.00%
5+	2 of 6	2/6	33.33%
6+	1 of 6	1/6	16.67%

These percentages are the backbone of every damage estimate. If you improve a hit roll from 4+ to 3+, your hit rate rises from 50.00% to 66.67%. That is not a small bump. It is a relative increase of one third. Likewise, forcing an enemy save from 4+ to 5+ with rend increases failed saves from 50.00% to 66.67%. That is why hit buffs, wound buffs, and rend often compound so powerfully when stacked.

How rend changes target durability

Rend is one of the most important offensive stats in AOS because it shifts the save threshold itself. That means the target does not merely take more damage in a vague sense. It specifically gets fewer successful save outcomes on a six sided die. Against well armored targets, this often matters more than adding a small number of extra attacks.

Base Save	At Rend 0	At Rend -1	At Rend -2	At Rend -3
2+	83.33% success	66.67% success	50.00% success	33.33% success
3+	66.67% success	50.00% success	33.33% success	16.67% success
4+	50.00% success	33.33% success	16.67% success	0.00% success
5+	33.33% success	16.67% success	0.00% success	0.00% success
6+	16.67% success	0.00% success	0.00% success	0.00% success

This table explains why a moderate damage profile can become lethal once it gains meaningful rend support. A target on a 4+ save effectively loses one third of its saves when it shifts to a 5+, and it loses two thirds of its saves when pushed to a 6+. In practical play, that means elite armor can crumble quickly when high rend attacks arrive in volume.

Understanding wards and damage ceilings

Ward saves create a second defensive layer after failed armor saves. This makes them especially valuable against high rend weapons and mortal wound output. A 5+ ward prevents one third of incoming damage on average. A 4+ ward prevents half. That is why elite heroes and anvil units with wards can feel dramatically tougher than their raw save value suggests. When you use the calculator, always check whether your target has a ward before assuming your hammer can finish the job cleanly.

Damage ceilings matter too. Flat 2 or flat 3 damage profiles can overkill low wound infantry, while damage 1 profiles can struggle to punch through multi wound elite units despite solid attack volume. The correct weapon profile often depends on target wound count more than people initially think. This is why the calculator includes wounds per model and target unit size. It lets you estimate not just total damage, but likely casualties.

How to use the calculator well

1. Enter the total number of attacks your unit is realistically making, not the theoretical maximum if coherency or pile in limitations reduce contact.
2. Use the actual current hit and wound values after buffs or penalties. If a unit is under a debuff, reflect that.
3. Apply rend carefully. Rend worsens the target save, so a 4+ save into rend -1 becomes a 5+ save.
4. Add ward only if it exists. Many players forget this and overestimate damage into premium defensive units.
5. Translate damage into casualties using target wounds per model. Total damage is useful, but model count often matters more for objective control.
6. Compare multiple targets. A unit that is excellent into 5+ save chaff may be inefficient into 3+ save elites, even if both targets have the same wounds characteristic.

Common mistakes players make with AOS damage math

• Forgetting that average damage is not guaranteed damage in one combat phase.
• Ignoring save modifiers from rend and assuming the printed save characteristic still applies.
• Overvaluing low volume, high damage profiles without accounting for failed hit and wound rolls.
• Calculating against an unbuffed target when the actual game state includes ward support or command abilities.

• Comparing units by total attacks alone instead of by full expected damage chain.
• Failing to account for overkill into one wound models.
• Using best case attack counts when only part of the unit can fight.
• Ignoring critical hit based mortals or other special effects that alter average output.

Expected value and the broader math behind the calculator

The logic behind this tool comes from basic probability and expected value. If an event happens with probability p and creates an average output of x, then its expected contribution is p × x. In AOS, each gate in the attack sequence reduces the pool further, so the expected result is the product of each stage. This is standard statistical reasoning and is broadly aligned with introductory probability teaching from authoritative sources such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology, Harvard’s Stat 110 probability course, and the Carnegie Mellon Department of Statistics and Data Science.

While tabletop games are not laboratory systems, the same expected value principles apply. When players say a unit is reliable, they usually mean its expected output is both high enough and stable enough to justify investment. A calculator does not remove variance, but it absolutely improves decision quality by grounding your judgment in repeatable math rather than anecdotal memory.

When to trust expected damage and when to think beyond it

Expected damage is most trustworthy when you are evaluating repeated, common situations: a battleline unit into a typical screen, a hammer into elite infantry, or a monster into a mid save target. It is slightly less complete when the profile depends on rerolls, exploding hits, fight on death effects, anti keyword bonuses, or significant sequencing interactions. In those cases, expected value remains helpful, but you should layer tactical context on top of the raw number.

You should also think beyond damage when victory points are on the line. Sometimes the right combat is not the one with the highest expected kill count. It may be the fight that pins a unit in place, removes objective control, or forces a redeploy issue in the next battle round. Damage calculators are best used as strategic support tools, not as replacements for scenario awareness.

Final takeaway

An AOS damage calculator is one of the most useful planning tools available to Age of Sigmar players because it converts layered dice mechanics into a practical estimate you can compare. It helps you identify which profiles are truly efficient, which targets you should prioritize, and how much defensive tech changes the combat picture. Use it before events, during list refinement, and when learning unfamiliar matchups. Over time, it will sharpen both your deployment choices and your threat assessment in game.

If you want the strongest results, treat calculator output as a baseline. Then adjust for real board conditions such as buffs, positioning, objective pressure, and whether every model can actually fight. That combination of disciplined math and tactical judgment is what turns raw averages into better game decisions.